Tropical Storm Melissa, the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, is currently churning in the central Caribbean Sea. As of Wednesday, October 22, the storm is centered a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, carrying maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. Its slow, uncertain movement over extremely warm Caribbean waters are raising fears among forecasters that it will intensify into a hurricane before delivering a devastating blow to vulnerable island nations later this week.
The most immediate and life-threatening concern from Tropical Storm Melissa is the potential for catastrophic rainfall, flash flooding, and landslides. The storm’s sluggish path means it could linger over the region, dumping massive amounts of water onto the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Jamaica.
Significant Flood Risk for Hispaniola
The primary focus of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) warnings is the island of Hispaniola, which is shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
- Haiti has been placed under a Hurricane Watch for its southwestern peninsula, from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-au-Prince. Hurricane conditions are possible as early as late Thursday.
- Rainfall Totals: Forecasters warn that southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic could see 5 to 10 inches of rain through Friday, with isolated amounts potentially exceeding a foot over mountainous areas. Given the widespread erosion and vulnerable infrastructure in Haiti, this amount of rainfall is a recipe for dangerous mudslides and devastating flash floods.
- Immediate Impacts: Heavy rains have already begun to affect the region, snarling traffic and causing minor disruptions in cities like Santo Domingo.
Tropical Storm Melissa’s Uncertain Track and Intensity
The major challenge for forecasters lies in predicting the storm’s trajectory beyond the next 48 hours. Steering currents in the central Caribbean are weak, which will cause Melissa to slow down, potentially stalling the system and prolonging its impact over a single area.
- Track Scenarios: While a gradual turn toward the northwest and north is expected to take the storm toward Jamaica and the southwestern tip of Haiti by late week, model guidance diverges significantly afterward. Some scenarios show a rapid turn north into a weakness in the subtropical ridge, while others suggest the storm could continue a westward drift toward Central America (Cuba, Nicaragua, or Honduras) next week.
- Hurricane Threat: Melissa is forecast to continue strengthening, and the NHC predicts it could reach Category 1 Hurricane status by Saturday morning. The Caribbean’s record-warm sea surface temperatures are essentially “rocket fuel,” giving the storm the energy for potential rapid intensification.
Jamaica and Other Islands on Alert
While the greatest threat centers on Hispaniola, other nations are also bracing for severe weather.
- Jamaica is under a Tropical Storm Watch, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning late Thursday or Friday. The island is also forecast to receive heavy rain, with flash flooding possible, particularly in the eastern and mountainous regions.
- Wider Reach: Lesser but still significant rainfall (1 to 3 inches) is expected across Aruba, Puerto Rico, and eastern Cuba. Swells generated by the system will also spread across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba, creating dangerous surf and rip currents.
Officials across all threatened regions are urging residents to complete preparations to protect life and property by Thursday. The potential for a slow-moving storm that intensifies into a hurricane means a multi-day ordeal of severe wind, rain, and life-threatening flooding is on the horizon for the northern Caribbean.
